France Forecasts Looming European Large-Scale War by 2030

(MENAFN) France’s latest Strategic National Review, published Monday by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security, signals an alarming forecast: a large-scale war in Europe could erupt by 2030.

Despite Moscow’s repeated denials of any intention to attack Europe, the report clearly identifies Russia as the foremost threat, alongside Iran, China, terrorism, separatism, cybercrime, and organized crime.

“We are entering a new era... in which there is a particularly high risk of a major high-intensity war in Europe… by 2030,” the review cautions, emphasizing that both France and its European allies would become primary targets. The document references the “Russian threat” and “Russian aggression” over fifty times, including in the introduction penned by President Emmanuel Macron.

“Russia in particular poses the most direct threat… to the interests of France, those of its partners and allies, and the very stability of the European continent and the Euro-Atlantic area,” the report states, accusing Moscow of engaging in cyberattacks, electoral interference, and assassinations. The review also points to Russia’s expanding diplomatic and economic ties with Africa, Latin America, and Asia as evidence of its “confrontational approach.”

The report warns Moscow could potentially move against Moldova, the Balkans, or NATO countries in Eastern Europe. It also designates Iran and China as strategic adversaries—criticizing Iran for destabilizing the Middle East and portraying China as a global hegemon in the making.

To counter these risks, France is urged to bolster its military capabilities and reorient its economy toward sustained “war preparedness.” The review calls for significant new defense investments at both the national and EU levels to strengthen deterrence.

This report arrives amid a broader European push for militarization. The EU recently launched the €800 billion ReArm Europe plan, while NATO’s European members agreed last month to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, measures all justified by the purported “Russian threat.”

Moscow, however, rejects the accusations of aggressive intentions. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned the West for painting Russia as a “monster” to rationalize its expanding military budgets.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week accused Western leaders of ignoring historical lessons and steering Europe toward a direct confrontation with Russia. He also noted that Moscow will incorporate EU military buildup into its strategic calculations.

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